You can use this to your advantage by shopping futures odds. This is different from simply converting the odds to a probability as we have taken out the sportsbook’s margin so that the sum of all probabilities equals 100%. Our Super Bowl column in the table below indicates the true probability implied by the odds. This shows how the market reacts week to week and can be useful when betting in-season futures odds if the market overreacts to a team’s result. The Change column indicates how much each team’s odds have moved and in which direction since the last time they were updated. While not 100% correlated to how strong a team is, it is a great baseline for establishing the strength of a team or modeling your own power rankings for the NFL. We’ve also included each team’s margin of victory this season. The team with the lowest odds is considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl. These odds are usually released months before the Super Bowl is set to take place, and the sportsbook will continue to update the odds as the season progresses. NFL odds to win the Super Bowl refer to the probability of a team winning the championship.

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